[2008.11.29] 世界经济：渐进主义的危险
归类于： 社论 — Eco Team @ 9:05 pm The world economy
世界经济The perils of incrementalism
渐进主义的危险Nov 27th 2008
From The Economist print edition
Bold, unorthodox remedies are needed to jolt the world economy back to life
世界经济重焕生机需要大胆、超越正统的疗法
THE prognosis is looking ever more grave. What began 15 months ago with a seizure of the credit markets has become a disease with an alarming list of real economic symptoms. America, Britain, the euro zone and Japan are already in a recession that threatens to be the worst, in some places, for a quarter of a century and possibly since the Depression. American consumers, unable to borrow and fearful for their jobs, are cutting spending; so are firms, short of cash and worried about sales. German business confidence is at a 15-year low. Japan’s exports to both rich countries and emerging ones are falling. Emerging economies are suffering too, as commodity prices fall and capital flees faster than in those countries’ own crises of a decade ago. In some countries-notably the United States-a vicious deflationary spiral of banks withdrawing credit and demand contracting is no longer unimaginable.
世界前景似乎更加黯淡了。15个月以前还只是信贷市场发作的小毛病，如今已经演变成一场恶疾，一系列令人担忧的实体经济皆受感染。美国、英国、欧元区国家和日本已经进入衰退，其中有些面临的有可能是近25年来甚至是大萧条以来最严重的衰退。美国消费者无力借贷，还有失业之忧，正大力削减开支；企业也同样在节衣缩食，现金短缺，销售业绩堪忧。德国商业信心已经降到15年的最低点。日本对发达国家和新兴市场的出口量都在下滑。新兴市场经济体日子也不好过，大宗商品价格暴跌，资本外逃的速度远远超出了10年前这些国家爆发危机时的情况。在某些国家，尤其是美国，银行撤回贷款和需求下降的紧缩漩涡不再是不可思议的现象。
Seeing the threat to the world economy’s vital functions, the policymakers have been working overtime. Interest rates have been cut dramatically. American rates are already down to 1%; Britain’s are at a 50-year low; and this week China’s central bank lopped 108 basis points off its main policy rate. Hundreds of billions have been pumped into banks and financial markets. Many financial institutions have been bailed out: the rescue of the once mighty Citigroup is merely the latest unthinkable to happen.
眼看世界经济的生活机能受到威胁，各国决策者一直在加班加点。大幅下调利率：美国利率已降到1%；英国利率降到50年来最低；本周中国央行将基准利率下调了108个基点。数千亿资金注入到了银行和金融市场。政府救助了许多金融机构，只不过救助曾经财大气粗的花旗集团出乎所有人的意料。
Despite all this, the patient has not responded. This is partly because some traditional remedies, such as looser monetary policy, are weakened in a credit crunch. It is also because the doctors have been ham-fisted: look at Hank Paulson’s changes of mind about whether to use America’s $700 billion rescue fund to recapitalise banks or to buy toxic assets. In addition, though, a lot of policy has been far too timid. Halting the world economy’s decline will demand something rather bolder than anything seen so far in this crisis.
尽管如此，病人还是没有任何回应。部分原因是一些传统的治疗办法在信用危机时其作用被削弱了，譬如宽松的货币政策。另外，也因为医生们一直比较愚笨，看看汉克•鲍尔森吧，在美国7000亿的救助基金是用来补充银行资本金还是购买问题资产上举棋不定。此外，尽管出台了不少政策，但很多都太胆小谨慎。阻止世界经济下滑，还需要更大胆的举措，要比此次危机以来的所有挽救措施都大胆些才行。
Sense and the Citi
理智与花旗
That means redoubling existing efforts in each of the three traditional areas of policy: bolstering banks; providing greater fiscal stimulus; and cutting interest rates. It also involves using more unorthodox tools, such as interfering directly in credit markets by buying up assets-a route where America’s Federal Reserve has shown the most creativity. Indeed, such “quantitative easing” is an augury for the option to be tried in extremis: reflating the economy by printing money to finance budget deficits. That risks inflation, which is economic poison; but, in highly indebted countries, it is less murderous than deflation.
这意味着要在以下三项传统政策领域加倍努力：支持银行、更大力度的财政刺激和降息。还要运用更多非正统的工具，例如通过购买全部问题资产来直接干预信贷市场–美联储在这一举措上显示了最多的创意。事实上，像这种”定量宽松型”货币政策预示着极端的选择：为弥补财政赤字，增印钞票，引发经济通胀。通胀是经济毒药，但对高负债的国家而言，冒着通胀的风险不及通缩痛苦。
Mercifully, the world is not at that stage yet. But it is getting closer. One person who seems to understand the need for action on a bigger scale is Barack Obama. In his various press conferences this week America’s president-elect laid out the nature of the challenge better than many leaders already in office. This was a “global crisis”, he argued, which merited a “global response”. The economy was “trapped in a vicious cycle” and needed a big “jolt” to ease the flow of credit and to cushion the drop in private demand. He is right.
还好，世界还未跌落到那般天地。但已经越来越靠近。有个人似乎理解了需要在更大范围有所行动，这个人就是巴拉克•奥巴马。本周，这位当选总统在许多新闻发布会上对挑战的诠示要优于很多在任领导人。他认为，这是一场”全球危机”，应当得到”全球回应”。经济”陷入了一个恶劣的周期里”，需要”重拳出击”来缓解信贷流动性紧张，缓冲急剧下滑的私人需求。他是正确的。
The starting-point for many policymakers remains lowering interest rates. Central banks in some rich economies, in particular Britain and the euro zone, still have room to cut rates-though it is notable how even fairly dramatic cuts are not working as they once did. The Bank of England reduced rates by one and a half percentage points in one go this month. But with banks reluctant to lend, lower rates from central banks will not work miracles.
很多决策者的出发点仍然是降息。部分发达国家的央行仍有降息的空间，特别是英国和欧元区，尽管很显然，无论多大幅度的降息都无法发挥像过去那般的作用。这个月英国央行一口气降息1.5个百分点。然而由于银行不愿借贷，央行的低利率也不能创造奇迹出来。
That suggests there is a lot to be gained in most places by concentrating more on the banks. The fact that Citigroup, the world’s biggest bank not so long ago, needed a rushed weekend rescue was an indictment of the authorities’ failures thus far, especially in America. Above all, Citi’s collapse showed the dangers of leaving huge quantities of toxic assets to fester on banks’ balance-sheets. Pumping in capital-as governments have been doing-is essential, but may not be enough. The history of successfully handled banking crises, such as Sweden’s in the early 1990s, suggest that governments also need to remove bad assets from banks’ balance sheets.
这表明，在银行上倾注更多精力能让很多地区获得进步的空间。拿花旗集团来说，不久以前还是全球最大的银行，周末便匆忙地寻求政府救助。花旗的例子表明，迄今为止政府的各种举措已然失败，尤其是美国。最重要的是，花旗的崩溃说明，让大量问题资产在银行资产负债表上腐烂下去太过危险。为银行注入资本是必要的，政府也一直在做，但它可能还不够。历史上成功处理银行危机的经验表明，如上世纪90年代初的瑞典，政府还需要从银行资产负债表上移除问题资产。
It would be good to report that the Citi deal provided a new model. Not really. The rescue is opaque-yet another ad hoc bail-out rather than part of a systematic plan; and it is too kind to the bank’s management, board and shareholders. Granted, the rescue ring-fences and limits Citi’s losses on a pile of the worst loans. But it would probably have been better to hive off its most toxic assets into a separate “bad bank”.
如果我们能报道说，对花旗的救助计划提供了一种新的模式，这当然不错。但也不尽然。对花旗的援助并不透明，与其说是系统救市计划的一部分，更像是一项特别救助；而且对花旗的管理层、董事会和股东太过善待了。诚然，救助计划将花旗的损失圈定在一堆最差的贷款上。但是，将最坏的资产剥离出去放到一家单独的”坏银行”也许会更好。
The charm of unorthodoxy
非正统的魅力
Looking ahead, governments in rich countries will need to do more to help their banks on both fronts-injecting capital and buying up assets. That would mean admitting to the scale of the problem: America may need more than the $350 billion left in the Treasury’s financial-rescue fund.
展望未来，在向银行注资和收购其问题资金这两条战线上，发达国家政府需要做更多。这意味着要承认问题的严峻性：美国财政部的金融救助基金还有3500亿美元，但这可能远远不够。
A more stable banking system will eventually get the money flowing, but in the meantime there are other ways. Intervening directly in credit markets makes a lot of sense in America, which relies more than other countries on non-bank finance and where official interest rates are hard to cut further. This is where the Fed has already been inventive: printing money to buy all manner of assets. In October it said it would buy short-term commercial paper. This week it unveiled two new schemes: a $600 billion plan to reduce mortgage rates by buying government-backed mortgage securities and the debt of America’s state-sponsored mortgage giants; and a $200 billion scheme to buy the debt backed by credit-card, car, small-business and student loans. This approach could be broadened to other markets that have shut down. For instance, there is little fresh (senior) credit for firms in bankruptcy. If the government can provide that cash, it could stop the coming wave of bankruptcies from becoming one of corporate liquidations.
一个更稳固的银行系统最终肯定会让流动性恢复，但同时还有其他办法。在美国，直接干预信贷市场会更行之有效，因为美国比其他国家更依赖于非银行融资，而且基准利率下调的空间所剩无几。美联储已经极富创意地通过增印美钞来购买各类资产。10月份美联储宣布，它将购买短期商业票据，本周又公布了两个新方案：用6000亿美元购买政府承兑按揭有价证券和政府支持的住房抵押巨头们的债券来降低按揭利率；提供2000亿美元来购买与信用卡、汽车、小企业贷款和学生贷款有关的债券。这一举措可能会被扩大到其他业已关闭的市场。例如，在破产边缘挣扎的企业几乎拿不到任何贷款。如果政府能提供资金，可以阻止步步逼近的破产潮演变成一场集体的公司清算。
However, all the bank rescues, credit interventions and looser monetary policy will only get the world so far. The biggest part of Mr Obama’s “jolt”, as he made clear, must be fiscal. When private demand sags so dramatically, the public sector must step in to boost spending, and boldly enough to make a difference. In America, although Mr Obama has refused to give a figure, talk among Democrat bigwigs is of a fiscal boost worth $500 billion-700 billion, or 3-5% of GDP.
无论如何，所有对银行的救援、对信贷市场的干预和宽松的货币政策，都只能做到目前的水平。奥巴马解释他所谓的”重拳出击” 中最大的部分必须是财政政策。当私人需求急剧下滑，公共部门必须站出来扩大支出，并且需要足够大胆以有所影响。虽然奥巴马拒绝给出具体的数字，但美国民主党的大佬们有传言，这项财政刺激计划大约在5000到7000亿美元左右，约占GDP的3%-5%。
So far the only other big country to conjure up sums on this scale is China (and its huge stimulus keeps on having to be revised downward as the figures are checked). Some of the timidity in Europe is explicable: its generous welfare states have more “automatic stabilisers”, such as payouts to unemployed workers, to support economies in recessions than hard-hearted America does. Even so, the Europeans have hardly impressed with their daring.
迄今为止，唯一能变出这么大一笔钱的大国只有中国（其巨大的财政刺激计划的数据还在核查中，结果应该是少于公布的数据）。欧洲的一些胆怯并不难理解：欧洲慷慨的福利国家比硬心肠的美国拥有更多的”自动稳定器”来支撑衰退中的经济，譬如对失业者的补贴。虽然如此，欧洲人还没有表现出任何让人留下印象的大胆来。
This week Britain’s chancellor laid out tax cuts worth 1% of GDP, but coupled these with a counterproductive plan to raise income taxes on high earners later. The European Commission has proposed a fiscal boost, across the European Union, of euro200 billion ($258 billion), or 1.5% of GDP, but its proposal seems unlikely to be taken up enthusiastically by member states. Germany, the EU’s biggest country, has both the heft and the money to loosen budgetary policy. Yet the government’s recent boost, amounting to just 0.25% of GDP, hardly suggested urgency.
本周，英国财政大臣公布了一项占GDP1%的减税计划，但随后还计划提高对高收入人群的所得税税率。欧盟委员会提议，在欧盟实施一项2000亿欧元（2580亿美元）的财政刺激计划，约占GDP的1.5%。但其成员国们似乎不会报以热情去实施这项计划。欧盟里最大的国家–德国，拥有足够的分量和钱去放松预算政策，但其最新公布的经济刺激计划才占到GDP的0.25%，几乎看不出任何紧迫感。
Plainly, not all countries can afford precisely the same dose of fiscal stimulus. Those reliant on skittish foreign capital have less room to take action than those countries with large amounts of domestic saving. But cautious incrementalism, ironically, risks letting the world slip ever further down the deflationary spiral. It is time to follow Mr Obama’s lead and jolt the patient back to life.
当然，并不是所有的国家都有能力采取财政刺激这样的措施。与拥有大量国内存款的国家相比，那些依赖不稳定的外国资本的国家能做的更少。但讽刺的是，小心谨慎的渐进主义可能会让世界更进一步地滑向通货紧缩的漩涡。是时候追随奥巴马的领导了，重拳出击，让世界经济重焕生机。
译者：kahlen